Var — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Var
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Var — 1ère circonscription | 47.7% | 26.3% | 21.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageVar | 54.4%−6.8 | 15.5%+10.8 | 16.7%+4.8 | 2.4%−0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+11.7 | 17.0%+9.3 | 29.0%−7.5 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Yannick CHENEVARD · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 21.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien SOULÉ | RN and allies | 19,233 | 42.3 |
| Yannick CHENEVARD Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,270 | 31.4 |
| Eric HABOUZIT | Left (NFP) | 10,182 | 22.4 |
| Guillaume TCHAKMAKDJIAN | RN and allies | 1,197 | 2.6 |
| Marie-Renée BALTY | Far left | 610 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Var — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated