Bouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription | 49.7% | 23.0% | 13.7% | 8.9% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 44.0%+5.7 | 32.3%−9.3 | 14.1%−0.3 | 5.9%+3.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+13.7 | 29.0%−6.0 | 17.0%−3.3 | 12.2%−3.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Joëlle MÉLIN · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 26.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joëlle MÉLIN Elected | RN and allies | 30,188 | 45.2 |
| Bernard OUGOURLOU-OGLOU | Left (NFP) | 15,867 | 23.8 |
| Bertrand MAS-FRAISSINET | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,465 | 18.7 |
| Aurélien MICHEL | LR and allies | 5,128 | 7.7 |
| Boualam AKSIL | Greens | 1,790 | 2.7 |
| Robert SANTUNIONE | RN and allies | 979 | 1.5 |
| Jean-Marie CLOREC | Far left | 319 | 0.5 |
| Isabelle MAZZONI | Others | 50 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated