Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription | 47.0% | 30.0% | 13.0% | 6.4% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 32.3%+14.7 | 44.0%−14.0 | 14.1%−1.1 | 5.9%+0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+18.0 | 36.0%−6.0 | 17.0%−4.1 | 12.2%−5.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Hendrik DAVI · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 17.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franck LIQUORI | RN and allies | 12,938 | 25.8 |
| Hendrik DAVI Elected | Left (NFP) | 12,271 | 24.4 |
| Allan POPELARD | Left (NFP) | 11,706 | 23.3 |
| Maxime BOUDET | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,985 | 17.9 |
| Ambroise MALINCONI | LR and allies | 2,576 | 5.1 |
| Barthélémy PLEZ | Greens | 865 | 1.7 |
| Marcel BLANC | RN and allies | 598 | 1.2 |
| Nathalie MALHOLE | Far left | 264 | 0.5 |
| Pierre-Frédéric ZIEBA | Others | 3 | 0.0 |
| Pauline PAPAZIAN | Others | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated