Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 47.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription | 66.8% | 19.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 32.3%+34.5 | 44.0%−25.0 | 14.1%−8.0 | 5.9%−2.5 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+37.7 | 36.0%−17.0 | 17.0%−10.9 | 12.2%−8.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Manuel BOMPARD · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 47.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel BOMPARD Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,712 | 67.5 |
| Aurélie QUINQUIS | RN and allies | 5,973 | 15.1 |
| Malika TORCHI | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,370 | 11.0 |
| Carime IGO | LR and allies | 830 | 2.1 |
| Anthony DEMONT | Greens | 723 | 1.8 |
| Florian TREVISAN | RN and allies | 323 | 0.8 |
| Isabelle BONNET | Far left | 256 | 0.7 |
| Leila BEHAIRI | Greens | 204 | 0.5 |
| Stéphane PERNICE | Far left | 178 | 0.5 |
| Kylian Jacky Jean-Luc VISAGE | Others | 11 | 0.0 |
| Lea Felice FERRANDI | Others | 1 | 0.0 |
| Eva-Françoise FAYE | Left (NFP) | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated