Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription | 49.9% | 26.0% | 18.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 44.0%+5.9 | 32.3%−6.3 | 14.1%+4.5 | 2.1%−0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+13.9 | 29.0%−3.0 | 17.0%+1.5 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Monique GRISETI · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 23.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monique GRISETI Elected | RN and allies | 24,276 | 45.5 |
| Pascaline LÉCORCHÉ | Left (NFP) | 14,340 | 26.9 |
| Sabrina AGRESTI-ROUBACHE | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,585 | 23.6 |
| Salomé MOYAL | RN and allies | 867 | 1.6 |
| Céline CARAVELLAZI | Sovereignists | 842 | 1.6 |
| Marc CECONE | Far left | 402 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated