Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 23%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 2ème circonscription | 36.8% | 29.0% | 21.9% | 9.9% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 44.0%−7.2 | 32.3%−3.2 | 14.1%+7.9 | 5.9%+4.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+0.8 | 29.0% | 17.0%+4.9 | 12.2%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Laurent LHARDIT · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 7.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier RIOULT | RN and allies | 18,836 | 32.1 |
| Laurent LHARDIT Elected | Left (NFP) | 16,740 | 28.5 |
| Claire PITOLLAT | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,870 | 27.0 |
| Laure-Agnès CARADEC | LR and allies | 5,100 | 8.7 |
| Jean-Marc GRAFFEO | RN and allies | 1,130 | 1.9 |
| Hugo ROCHE POGGI | Left (NFP) | 847 | 1.4 |
| Claudine RODINSON | Far left | 229 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated