Var — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Var
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Var — 5ème circonscription | 56.7% | 17.3% | 11.9% | 9.2% |
| Provincial averageVar | 54.4%+2.2 | 15.5%+1.8 | 16.7%−4.9 | 8.3%+0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+20.7 | 17.0%+0.3 | 29.0%−17.1 | 12.2%−3.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Julie LECHANTEUX · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 39.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julie LECHANTEUX Elected | RN and allies | 34,496 | 51.5 |
| Philippe MICHEL-KLEISBAUER | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,890 | 22.2 |
| Aurelien LACOUR | Left (NFP) | 8,450 | 12.6 |
| Danièle LOMBARD | LR and allies | 5,304 | 7.9 |
| Hélène Charlotte DE BUSSCHÈRE | Greens | 2,058 | 3.1 |
| Vincent THIERY | RN and allies | 1,429 | 2.1 |
| Rémi KRANZER | Far left | 342 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alpes-Maritimes — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Var — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated