Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Alpes-Maritimes
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription | 52.7% | 18.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Provincial averageAlpes-Maritimes | 48.5%+4.2 | 18.5%−0.2 | 10.7%+0.9 | 15.7%−4.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+16.7 | 29.0%−10.7 | 17.0%−5.4 | 12.2%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Lionel TIVOLI · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 34.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel TIVOLI Elected | RN and allies | 28,676 | 48.1 |
| Leïla TONNERRE | Left (NFP) | 11,339 | 19.0 |
| David VARRONE | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,856 | 16.5 |
| Simon DARAGON | LR and allies | 6,162 | 10.3 |
| Patrice MIRAN | Greens | 2,296 | 3.9 |
| Indiana PORET-RINCK | RN and allies | 931 | 1.6 |
| Florent IMBERT | Far left | 381 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alpes-Maritimes — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Alpes-Maritimes — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated