Paris — 10ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Paris

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	RN and allies	LR and allies
Paris — 10ème circonscription	49.9%	21.2%	15.7%	7.2%
Provincial averageParis	44.5%+5.4	27.8%−6.6	15.0%+0.7	9.3%−2.1
National averageFrance	29.0%+20.9	17.0%+4.2	36.0%−20.3	12.2%−5.0

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Rodrigo ARENAS · Left (NFP)

The united left won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the united left ahead by 28.7 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Rodrigo ARENAS Elected	Left (NFP)	25,216	50.7
Benjamin DJIANE	Centre (Ensemble)	11,918	23.9
Agnès PAGEARD	RN and allies	5,670	11.4
Patrick VIRY	LR and allies	2,965	6.0
Yann WEHRLING	Greens	1,324	2.7
Alexia OSTYN	Centre (Ensemble)	640	1.3
Roger BERTHOLON	RN and allies	634	1.3
Charlotte DE VILMORIN	Others	623	1.3
Michel GOLDSTEIN	Centre (Ensemble)	469	0.9
Marianne NOEL	Far left	318	0.6
Camille LEBRUN	Far left	0	0.0

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.