Paris — 12ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Paris

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Centre (Ensemble)	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	LR and allies
Paris — 12ème circonscription	35.2%	28.3%	19.2%	14.2%
Provincial averageParis	27.8%+7.4	44.5%−16.3	15.0%+4.1	9.3%+4.9
National averageFrance	17.0%+18.2	29.0%−0.8	36.0%−16.8	12.2%+2.0

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Olivia GREGOIRE · Centre (Ensemble)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 7.0 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Olivia GREGOIRE Elected	Centre (Ensemble)	22,145	39.4
Celine MALAISÉ	Left (NFP)	16,294	29.0
David ATTIA	RN and allies	8,111	14.4
Jérôme LORIAU	LR and allies	7,297	13.0
Philippe CUIGNACHE D'APREVAL	RN and allies	947	1.7
Alienor BILLAULT HARLE	Greens	850	1.5
Arnaud DE GONTAUT BIRON	Centre (Ensemble)	449	0.8
Muriel MONCHAL	Far left	156	0.3
Laszlo FERRÉOL	Left (NFP)	19	0.0
Joachim MILESCHI	Far left	0	0.0

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.