Paris — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Paris
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris — 1ère circonscription | 40.5% | 31.2% | 14.6% | 11.3% |
| Provincial averageParis | 27.8%+12.7 | 44.5%−13.4 | 15.0%−0.4 | 9.3%+2.0 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+23.5 | 29.0%+2.2 | 36.0%−21.4 | 12.2%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sylvain MAILLARD · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 9.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sylvain MAILLARD Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 28,048 | 44.7 |
| Raphaël KEMPF | Left (NFP) | 20,138 | 32.1 |
| Delphine VOIRIN | RN and allies | 6,303 | 10.0 |
| Laurence SAILLIET | LR and allies | 3,469 | 5.5 |
| Pierre MAURIN | LR and allies | 2,883 | 4.6 |
| Marine CHIABERTO | RN and allies | 991 | 1.6 |
| Alban Ludovic Bertrand PINEAU | Centre (Ensemble) | 598 | 1.0 |
| Laurence BOULINIER | Far left | 231 | 0.4 |
| Mathilde CONTENSOU | Others | 89 | 0.1 |
| Axel METZKER | Others | 3 | 0.0 |
| Aurélien GAUTREAU | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Paris — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Paris — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 18ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 12ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Forecast updated