Paris — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Paris
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris — 2ème circonscription | 39.1% | 32.8% | 15.4% | 10.1% |
| Provincial averageParis | 27.8%+11.3 | 44.5%−11.8 | 15.0%+0.4 | 9.3%+0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+22.1 | 29.0%+3.8 | 36.0%−20.5 | 12.2%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean LAUSSUCQ · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 6.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine ROSSET | Left (NFP) | 18,845 | 33.4 |
| Jean LAUSSUCQ Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,325 | 23.6 |
| Gilles LE GENDRE | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,071 | 19.6 |
| Melody DE WITTE | RN and allies | 6,206 | 11.0 |
| Félicité HERZOG DE COSSÉ BRISSAC | LR and allies | 3,792 | 6.7 |
| Romain MARSILY | LR and allies | 1,229 | 2.2 |
| Ornella EVANGELISTA | RN and allies | 778 | 1.4 |
| Cécile Marie LORANS | Greens | 512 | 0.9 |
| Frédéric MAURIANGE | Centre (Ensemble) | 430 | 0.8 |
| Charline JOLIVEAU | Far left | 168 | 0.3 |
| Elise MAGNE | Left (NFP) | 60 | 0.1 |
| Clara SACASA | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Paris — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Paris — 12ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Paris — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Forecast updated