Paris — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Paris
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris — 3ème circonscription | 45.6% | 29.5% | 12.9% | 9.2% |
| Provincial averageParis | 44.5%+1.0 | 27.8%+1.7 | 15.0%−2.2 | 9.3%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+16.6 | 17.0%+12.4 | 36.0%−23.1 | 12.2%−3.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Léa BALAGE EL MARIKY · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 16.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Léa BALAGE EL MARIKY Elected | Left (NFP) | 24,441 | 46.2 |
| Stanislas GUERINI | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,001 | 34.0 |
| Olga PODOLSKAIA | RN and allies | 4,709 | 8.9 |
| Paul HATTE | LR and allies | 4,118 | 7.8 |
| Marie COURTOIS | RN and allies | 486 | 0.9 |
| Côme CITROEN | Greens | 433 | 0.8 |
| Laurent BURTAIRE | Far left | 232 | 0.4 |
| Grégory FERNANDES | Far left | 151 | 0.3 |
| Quentin LAPORTE | Centre (Ensemble) | 116 | 0.2 |
| Warda BAÏLICHE | Centre (Ensemble) | 102 | 0.2 |
| Laurent SEMAT | Left (NFP) | 92 | 0.2 |
| Thierry ALQUIER | LR and allies | 81 | 0.2 |
| Irène GASARIAN | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Paris — 18ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Paris — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated