Paris — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Paris
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris — 4ème circonscription | 32.1% | 27.6% | 20.6% | 17.2% |
| Provincial averageParis | 27.8%+4.3 | 9.3%+18.3 | 15.0%+5.6 | 44.5%−27.3 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+15.1 | 12.2%+15.4 | 36.0%−15.3 | 29.0%−11.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Astrid PANOSYAN-BOUVET · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 4.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astrid PANOSYAN-BOUVET Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 19,677 | 37.2 |
| Geoffroy BOULARD | LR and allies | 14,048 | 26.6 |
| Théa FOURDRINIER | Left (NFP) | 9,474 | 17.9 |
| Arnaud DASSIER | RN and allies | 8,227 | 15.5 |
| Olivier COURTOIS | RN and allies | 1,135 | 2.1 |
| Pierre LEVENARD | Far left | 105 | 0.2 |
| Karim BRITEL | Others | 99 | 0.2 |
| Laetitia LAURON | Left (NFP) | 84 | 0.2 |
| Guillaume CARDON | Others | 56 | 0.1 |
| Emile MAHIEU | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hauts-de-Seine — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 12ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Paris — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated