Paris — 18ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Paris
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris — 18ème circonscription | 52.3% | 28.8% | 11.0% | 5.4% |
| Provincial averageParis | 44.5%+7.8 | 27.8%+1.0 | 15.0%−4.1 | 9.3%−3.9 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+23.3 | 17.0%+11.8 | 36.0%−25.0 | 12.2%−6.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Aymeric CARON · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 23.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aymeric CARON Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,299 | 50.4 |
| Pierre-Yves BOURNAZEL | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,902 | 32.4 |
| Valérie TIREFORT | RN and allies | 3,641 | 7.0 |
| Rudolph GRANIER | LR and allies | 2,184 | 4.2 |
| Catherine COUTARD | Left (NFP) | 811 | 1.6 |
| Philippine LONG | Centre (Ensemble) | 804 | 1.5 |
| Pierre BRAVOZ | Left (NFP) | 742 | 1.4 |
| Marguerite PIERRE | RN and allies | 527 | 1.0 |
| Annie BOUBAULT | Far left | 214 | 0.4 |
| Audrey LE BOEUF | Others | 68 | 0.1 |
| David THIELE | Far left | 8 | 0.0 |
| Béatrice FAILLÈS | Centre (Ensemble) | 0 | 0.0 |
| Stéphane MANIGOLD | Centre (Ensemble) | 0 | 0.0 |
| Yasmin BERROUBA | Centre (Ensemble) | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Paris — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 17ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Paris — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 16ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated