Paris — 16ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Paris

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 46.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	RN and allies	LR and allies
Paris — 16ème circonscription	61.7%	15.2%	13.3%	5.7%
Provincial averageParis	44.5%+17.2	27.8%−12.6	15.0%−1.7	9.3%−3.7
National averageFrance	29.0%+32.7	17.0%−1.8	36.0%−22.6	12.2%−6.6

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Sarah LEGRAIN · Left (NFP)

The united left won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the united left ahead by 46.6 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Sarah LEGRAIN Elected	Left (NFP)	32,422	62.5
Elsa PARIENTE	Centre (Ensemble)	10,154	19.6
Christèle DE FROMONT DE BOUAILLE	RN and allies	4,829	9.3
Marie TOUBIANA	LR and allies	2,291	4.4
Victor HUGUET	Greens	1,003	1.9
Cecile FISCHER	RN and allies	506	1.0
Nordine EL-MARBATI	Far left	409	0.8
Marie-Noëlle BLONDEL	Centre (Ensemble)	287	0.6
Hakima KHELFA	Others	1	0.0
Hortense VILLENAVE	Far left	0	0.0

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.