Paris — 15ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Paris
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 47.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris — 15ème circonscription | 63.6% | 15.9% | 13.0% | 4.8% |
| Provincial averageParis | 44.5%+19.1 | 27.8%−11.9 | 15.0%−2.0 | 9.3%−4.5 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+34.6 | 17.0%−1.2 | 36.0%−23.0 | 12.2%−7.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Danielle SIMONNET · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 47.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle SIMONNET Elected | Left (NFP) | 23,103 | 41.9 |
| Céline VERZELETTI | Left (NFP) | 12,619 | 22.9 |
| Mohamad GASSAMA | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,948 | 16.2 |
| Clotilde GUERY | RN and allies | 4,969 | 9.0 |
| François-Marie DIDIER | LR and allies | 1,968 | 3.6 |
| Philippe ARAGON | Centre (Ensemble) | 1,634 | 3.0 |
| Aliou POURCHET | Centre (Ensemble) | 943 | 1.7 |
| Christian GUILLOT | RN and allies | 558 | 1.0 |
| Arnaud CHARVILLAT | Far left | 275 | 0.5 |
| Pierre AUGROS | Far left | 128 | 0.2 |
| Laurent CHRÉTIEN MARQUET | Others | 32 | 0.1 |
| Audrey LEPAGE | Sovereignists | 1 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Paris — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 16ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated