Paris — 11ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Paris

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the united left a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	RN and allies	LR and allies
Paris — 11ème circonscription	43.0%	31.1%	14.6%	8.3%
Provincial averageParis	44.5%−1.6	27.8%+3.3	15.0%−0.5	9.3%−1.1
National averageFrance	29.0%+13.9	17.0%+14.1	36.0%−21.4	12.2%−3.9

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Céline HERVIEU · Left (NFP)

The united left won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the united left ahead by 11.9 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Céline HERVIEU Elected	Left (NFP)	24,195	43.7
Maud GATEL	Centre (Ensemble)	19,295	34.9
Lindsay FISCHER	RN and allies	5,632	10.2
Jean-François ALEXANDRE	LR and allies	3,888	7.0
Anne-Marie TARANNE	RN and allies	749	1.4
Julie LASNE	Greens	715	1.3
Julien VICK	Centre (Ensemble)	387	0.7
Marie CAMP	Centre (Ensemble)	259	0.5
Laurent VINCIGUERRA	Far left	223	0.4
Iwan CLEMENTE	Others	25	0.1
Rose LAVIRE	Far left	0	0.0

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.