Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pas-de-Calais
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 56%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription | 41.5% | 30.5% | 19.4% | 4.9% |
| Provincial averagePas-de-Calais | 53.2%−11.6 | 12.8%+17.8 | 20.8%−1.5 | 9.6%−4.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+5.6 | 17.0%+13.5 | 29.0%−9.6 | 12.2%−7.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Agnès PANNIER-RUNACHER · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 11.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alban HEUSÈLE | RN and allies | 22,239 | 37.3 |
| Agnès PANNIER-RUNACHER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,838 | 21.5 |
| Alexandre COUSIN | Left (NFP) | 11,991 | 20.1 |
| Nicolas DESFACHELLE | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,303 | 13.9 |
| Mabrouka DHIFALLAH | LR and allies | 2,180 | 3.7 |
| Bruno LADSOUS | Greens | 946 | 1.6 |
| Nathalie LEBLANC | RN and allies | 697 | 1.2 |
| Béatrice BOUFFART | Far left | 409 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 11ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 5ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated