Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pas-de-Calais
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription | 56.8% | 18.1% | 13.8% | 8.4% |
| Provincial averagePas-de-Calais | 53.2%+3.6 | 20.8%−2.7 | 9.6%+4.1 | 12.8%−4.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+20.8 | 29.0%−10.9 | 12.2%+1.5 | 17.0%−8.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Emmanuel BLAIRY · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 38.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel BLAIRY Elected | RN and allies | 38,755 | 54.1 |
| Philippe BOLET | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,613 | 13.4 |
| Marie BERNARD | LR and allies | 9,026 | 12.6 |
| Jean-Michel SAUVAGE | Left (NFP) | 6,957 | 9.7 |
| Jean-Jacques COTTEL | Left (NFP) | 6,637 | 9.3 |
| Marie BERTHOUD | Far left | 680 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Somme — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated