Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pas-de-Calais
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 35.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription | 51.6% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 14.5% |
| Provincial averagePas-de-Calais | 53.2%−1.6 | 20.8%−4.8 | 12.8%+2.0 | 9.6%+4.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+15.6 | 29.0%−13.0 | 17.0%−2.3 | 12.2%+2.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Caroline PARMENTIER · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 35.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline PARMENTIER Elected | RN and allies | 25,674 | 48.9 |
| Hadrien COISNE | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,394 | 19.8 |
| Estelle HARREMOES | Left (NFP) | 8,881 | 16.9 |
| Hakim ELAZOUZI | LR and allies | 6,985 | 13.3 |
| Anne-Marie DEFLANDRE | Far left | 624 | 1.2 |
| Julien GUAQUIER | LR and allies | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 15ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated