Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pas-de-Calais
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 45.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription | 63.3% | 18.0% | 11.7% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averagePas-de-Calais | 53.2%+10.1 | 20.8%−2.9 | 9.6%+2.1 | 12.8%−9.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+27.3 | 29.0%−11.1 | 12.2%−0.5 | 17.0%−13.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Thierry FRAPPÉ · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 45.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thierry FRAPPÉ Elected | RN and allies | 32,530 | 60.6 |
| Emmanuelle LEVEUGLE | Left (NFP) | 10,085 | 18.8 |
| Thomas BUTTIN | LR and allies | 5,635 | 10.5 |
| Léo LUNIEWSKI | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,571 | 8.5 |
| Éric ROBASZKIEWICZ | Far left | 851 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 15ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated