Nord — 15ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nord
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nord — 15ème circonscription | 46.5% | 33.5% | 16.6% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0%+4.5 | 12.7%+20.8 | 28.2%−11.6 | 3.6%−1.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+10.5 | 12.2%+21.3 | 29.0%−12.4 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-Pierre BATAILLE · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 12.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pierrick BERTELOOT | RN and allies | 29,894 | 46.0 |
| Jean-Pierre BATAILLE Elected | LR and allies | 22,206 | 34.2 |
| Émilie DUCOURANT | Left (NFP) | 11,853 | 18.2 |
| Benjamin DUBIEZ | Far left | 1,078 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 14ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated