Pas-de-Calais — 11ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pas-de-Calais
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pas-de-Calais — 11ème circonscription | 62.2% | 25.9% | 6.0% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averagePas-de-Calais | 53.2%+9.0 | 20.8%+5.1 | 9.6%−3.7 | 12.8%−10.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+26.2 | 29.0%−3.1 | 12.2%−6.3 | 17.0%−14.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marine LE PEN · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 36.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine LE PEN Elected | RN and allies | 32,681 | 58.0 |
| Samira LAAL | Left (NFP) | 14,666 | 26.1 |
| Dorian LAMY | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,269 | 7.6 |
| Michel LANOY | LR and allies | 2,676 | 4.8 |
| Geoffrey FOURNIER | RN and allies | 813 | 1.4 |
| Dominique GAI | Far left | 786 | 1.4 |
| Gautier WEINMANN | Left (NFP) | 417 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pas-de-Calais — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 5ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Nord — 17ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated