Nord — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nord
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nord — 1ère circonscription | 55.4% | 21.1% | 12.5% | 7.6% |
| Provincial averageNord | 28.2%+27.2 | 42.0%−20.9 | 11.8%+0.7 | 12.7%−5.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+26.3 | 36.0%−14.9 | 17.0%−4.5 | 12.2%−4.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Aurélien LE COQ · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 34.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurélien LE COQ Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,800 | 44.2 |
| Carole LECLERCQ | RN and allies | 7,298 | 18.1 |
| Vanessa DUHAMEL | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,055 | 17.5 |
| Amy BAH | Left (NFP) | 3,551 | 8.8 |
| Brice LAURET | LR and allies | 1,951 | 4.9 |
| Maxime LEGRAND | Left (NFP) | 1,169 | 2.9 |
| Allison MARINHO | LR and allies | 610 | 1.5 |
| Audric ALEXANDRE | Others | 345 | 0.9 |
| Pierre MADELAIN | Far left | 217 | 0.5 |
| Michel LAURENÇOT | Left (NFP) | 199 | 0.5 |
| Verena PRIEM | Others | 58 | 0.1 |
| Frédéric CHAOUAT | Others | 14 | 0.0 |
| Adel BOUSALHAM | Left (NFP) | 1 | 0.0 |
| Line MARAGE | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nord — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Nord — 5ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Nord — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Nord — 9ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Nord — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Nord — 7ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated