Nord — 9ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Nord

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.3 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	RN and allies	LR and allies
Nord — 9ème circonscription	30.2%	28.9%	24.5%	13.4%
Provincial averageNord	28.2%+2.1	11.8%+17.1	42.0%−17.5	12.7%+0.7
National averageFrance	29.0%+1.2	17.0%+11.9	36.0%−11.5	12.2%+1.2

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Violette SPILLEBOUT · Centre (Ensemble)

The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 1.3 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Violette SPILLEBOUT Elected	Centre (Ensemble)	20,620	34.0
Odile VIDAL-SAGNIER	Left (NFP)	18,869	31.1
Christine LANDRU	RN and allies	12,533	20.7
Alice POGAM	LR and allies	5,572	9.2
Charles DELAVENNE	LR and allies	1,832	3.0
Valérie TALPAERT	RN and allies	561	0.9
Chantal SARAZIN	Far left	477	0.8
Frédéric GRUZON	Others	161	0.3
Mathias DHELIN	Far left	4	0.0

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.