Nord — 10ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nord
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 39%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nord — 10ème circonscription | 37.7% | 30.9% | 24.0% | 4.4% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0%−4.3 | 11.8%+19.1 | 28.2%−4.2 | 12.7%−8.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+1.7 | 17.0%+13.9 | 29.0%−5.1 | 12.2%−7.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Gérald DARMANIN · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 6.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gérald DARMANIN Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,512 | 36.0 |
| Bastien VERBRUGGHE | RN and allies | 16,675 | 34.3 |
| Leslie MORTREUX | Left (NFP) | 12,065 | 24.8 |
| Jérôme GARCIA | LR and allies | 1,447 | 3.0 |
| Christophe CHARLON | Far left | 535 | 1.1 |
| Gustave VIGUIE-DESPLACES | RN and allies | 249 | 0.5 |
| Marcellin BRAZON | LR and allies | 118 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nord — 9ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Nord — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Nord — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Nord — 7ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Nord — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Nord — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated