France · 2027 presidential poll
Elabe — March 27, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Since the pollster’s previous wave (October 31, 2025), same lineup:
- Philippe 15.5% → 20.5% (+5 pts)
- Mélenchon 12.5% → 10.5% (−2 pts)
- Zemmour 4.5% → 3% (−1.5 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, Elabe usually puts Mélenchon 2.3 pts lower and Roussel 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (12 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
Run-off match-ups tested
- null 53% — 47% null
- null 49% — 51% null
This poll tested 6 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Bardella, Philippe, Glucksmann, Retailleau, Tondelier, Zemmour
- Jordan Bardella36%
- Édouard Philippe20.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon10.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann10.5%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- Marine Tondelier4.5%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Dominique de Villepin3%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 2 · with Bardella, Glucksmann, Retailleau, Darmanin, Tondelier, Knafo
- Jordan Bardella38.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12.5%
- Bruno Retailleau8.5%
- Gérald Darmanin8%
- Marine Tondelier5%
- Dominique de Villepin5%
- Sarah Knafo3.5%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 3 · with Bardella, Glucksmann, Retailleau, Ruffin, Lecornu, Zemmour
- Jordan Bardella37.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%
- Bruno Retailleau9.5%
- François Ruffin8%
- Sébastien Lecornu6.5%
- Dominique de Villepin5.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 4 · with Le Pen, Glucksmann, Attal, Retailleau, Tondelier, Knafo
- Marine Le Pen34%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
- Gabriel Attal11.5%
- Bruno Retailleau10%
- Dominique de Villepin6%
- Marine Tondelier4%
- Sarah Knafo4%
- Fabien Roussel2.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 5 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Hollande, Retailleau, Tondelier, Zemmour
- Marine Le Pen31.5%
- Édouard Philippe22%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11.5%
- François Hollande8.5%
- Bruno Retailleau8.5%
- Marine Tondelier5%
- Fabien Roussel3.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Dominique de Villepin2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 6 · with Bardella, Philippe, Knafo, Faure, Tondelier
- Jordan Bardella38%
- Édouard Philippe25.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
- Sarah Knafo5%
- Olivier Faure4.5%
- Marine Tondelier4.5%
- Fabien Roussel4%
- Dominique de Villepin3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →