France · 2027 presidential poll

Elabe — October 31, 2025

Fieldwork
October 30, 2025 → October 31, 2025
Sample
1,501 respondents
Published
October 31, 2025
Pollster release
Pollster release →

First round, voting intention

  • Jordan Bardella 35%
  • Édouard Philippe 15.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12.5%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann 11%
  • Bruno Retailleau 8%
  • Marine Tondelier 4.5%
  • Éric Zemmour 4.5%
  • Fabien Roussel 3%
  • Dominique de Villepin 3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud 1%

Our reading of this poll

House effect: on the same lineups, Elabe usually puts Mélenchon 2.3 pts lower and Roussel 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (12 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect →

This poll tested 5 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Bardella, Philippe, Glucksmann, Retailleau, Zemmour

  • Jordan Bardella35%
  • Édouard Philippe15.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann11%
  • Bruno Retailleau8%
  • Marine Tondelier4.5%
  • Éric Zemmour4.5%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Dominique de Villepin3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 2 · with Bardella, Philippe, Hollande, Zemmour, Bertrand

  • Jordan Bardella35%
  • Édouard Philippe19%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
  • François Hollande6.5%
  • Éric Zemmour6%
  • Marine Tondelier5.5%
  • Xavier Bertrand5.5%
  • Dominique de Villepin4%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 3 · with Bardella, Glucksmann, Retailleau, Darmanin, de Villiers

  • Jordan Bardella37.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann13%
  • Bruno Retailleau8%
  • Gérald Darmanin7%
  • Marine Tondelier5%
  • Dominique de Villepin5%
  • Philippe de Villiers4.5%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1.5%

Line-up 4 · with Le Pen, Attal, Glucksmann, Retailleau, Knafo

  • Marine Le Pen34%
  • Gabriel Attal12.5%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann12%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon11.5%
  • Bruno Retailleau8%
  • Sarah Knafo6.5%
  • Dominique de Villepin5%
  • Marine Tondelier4.5%
  • Fabien Roussel3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1.5%

Line-up 5 · with Bardella, Philippe, Knafo, Faure, Wauquiez

  • Jordan Bardella36.5%
  • Édouard Philippe19.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
  • Sarah Knafo6%
  • Olivier Faure5.5%
  • Marine Tondelier5.5%
  • Fabien Roussel4.5%
  • Dominique de Villepin4%
  • Laurent Wauquiez3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →

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