France · 2027 presidential poll
Cluster17 — April 5, 2024
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
House effect: on the same lineups, Cluster17 usually puts Le Pen 3.7 pts lower and Dupont-Aignan 1.2 pt higher than other pollsters (6 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
Run-off match-ups tested
- null 50% — 50% null
- null 35% — 65% null
This poll tested 3 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Le Pen, Ruffin, Philippe, Wauquiez, Dupont-Aignan
- Marine Le Pen31%
- François Ruffin29%
- Édouard Philippe25%
- Éric Zemmour6.5%
- Laurent Wauquiez4.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Philippe Poutou2%
Line-up 2 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Mélenchon, Wauquiez, Dupont-Aignan
- Marine Le Pen32%
- Édouard Philippe31%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon18%
- Éric Zemmour7%
- Laurent Wauquiez5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan4%
- Philippe Poutou3%
Line-up 3 · with Ruffin, Bardella, Sébastien
- François Ruffin29%
- Jordan Bardella25%
- Éric Zemmour4.5%
- Patrick Sébastien3%
- Philippe Poutou2%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →