Essonne — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Essonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essonne — 2ème circonscription | 45.1% | 25.8% | 17.1% | 4.6% |
| Provincial averageEssonne | 28.2%+16.8 | 37.4%−11.6 | 15.9%+1.2 | 7.3%−2.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+9.1 | 29.0%−3.2 | 17.0%+0.1 | 12.2%−7.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Nathalie DA CONCEICAO CARVALHO · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 19.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie DA CONCEICAO CARVALHO Elected | RN and allies | 24,608 | 40.3 |
| Mathieu HILLAIRE | Left (NFP) | 16,207 | 26.5 |
| Naïma SIFER | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,490 | 22.1 |
| Pierre MAYEUR | LR and allies | 2,054 | 3.4 |
| Alexandre LIENHARD | Greens | 1,754 | 2.9 |
| Jacques BORIE | Greens | 1,389 | 2.3 |
| Carla TARCY | RN and allies | 1,045 | 1.7 |
| Mathilde PHAN HIEU | Far left | 517 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Essonne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Essonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Essonne — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated