Essonne — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Essonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 35% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essonne — 4ème circonscription | 35.6% | 29.9% | 28.8% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageEssonne | 28.2%+7.4 | 37.4%−7.5 | 15.9%+12.9 | 5.8%−2.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−0.4 | 29.0%+0.9 | 17.0%+11.8 | 3.9%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marie-Pierre RIXAIN · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 5.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Pierre RIXAIN Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 23,108 | 33.9 |
| Jérôme CARBRIAND | RN and allies | 21,144 | 31.0 |
| Amadou DEME | Left (NFP) | 21,010 | 30.8 |
| Tony GOMES | RN and allies | 1,177 | 1.7 |
| Michèle POHYER | Far left | 790 | 1.2 |
| Jean-François RICOIS | Others | 500 | 0.7 |
| Yves MARTY | Others | 419 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Essonne — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Essonne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Essonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 13ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Hauts-de-Seine — 12ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated