Essonne — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Essonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essonne — 5ème circonscription | 37.9% | 27.5% | 19.6% | 11.2% |
| Provincial averageEssonne | 37.4%+0.5 | 15.9%+11.6 | 28.2%−8.7 | 7.3%+3.9 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+8.9 | 17.0%+10.5 | 36.0%−16.4 | 12.2%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Paul MIDY · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 10.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre LARROUTUROU | Left (NFP) | 19,107 | 37.9 |
| Paul MIDY Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,362 | 32.5 |
| Laetitia HORVELIN | RN and allies | 7,692 | 15.3 |
| François Guy TRÉBULLE | LR and allies | 4,998 | 9.9 |
| Marianne BILLOIR | Greens | 898 | 1.8 |
| Wendy LONCHAMPT | RN and allies | 627 | 1.2 |
| Benoît ODILLE | Left (NFP) | 380 | 0.8 |
| Didier PAXION | Far left | 317 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hauts-de-Seine — 12ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- Essonne — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 8ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Essonne — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Hauts-de-Seine — 13ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Hauts-de-Seine — 10ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Forecast updated