Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bas-Rhin
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription | 49.0% | 19.3% | 18.1% | 7.7% |
| Provincial averageBas-Rhin | 24.1%+25.0 | 20.5%−1.2 | 36.5%−18.4 | 12.9%−5.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+20.0 | 17.0%+2.3 | 36.0%−17.9 | 12.2%−4.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sandra REGOL · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 29.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandra REGOL Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,631 | 47.6 |
| Etienne LOOS | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,513 | 24.3 |
| Hombeline DU PARC | RN and allies | 6,081 | 14.0 |
| Irène WEISS | LR and allies | 2,787 | 6.4 |
| Serge OEHLER | Left (NFP) | 835 | 1.9 |
| Jamal ROUCHDI | Others | 472 | 1.1 |
| Luc MENARD | RN and allies | 436 | 1.0 |
| Patrick ARBOGAST | Greens | 424 | 1.0 |
| Odette HOLTZER | Others | 395 | 0.9 |
| Albéric BARRET | Greens | 315 | 0.7 |
| Louise FÈVE | Far left | 146 | 0.3 |
| Frédéric SEIGLE-MURANDI | Left (NFP) | 107 | 0.3 |
| Dan BENHAMOU | Far left | 77 | 0.2 |
| Thomas BRANT | Others | 77 | 0.2 |
| Thomas SCHLUND | Others | 43 | 0.1 |
| Etienne GENIEUX | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated