Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bas-Rhin
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription | 42.3% | 27.4% | 16.2% | 6.2% |
| Provincial averageBas-Rhin | 36.5%+5.7 | 20.5%+6.9 | 24.1%−7.9 | 12.9%−6.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+6.3 | 17.0%+10.4 | 29.0%−12.8 | 12.2%−6.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Charles SITZENSTUHL · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 14.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas ESTEVE | RN and allies | 27,897 | 39.2 |
| Charles SITZENSTUHL Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 22,993 | 32.3 |
| Marc RUHLMANN | Left (NFP) | 12,043 | 16.9 |
| Leo COUTAUD | LR and allies | 3,529 | 5.0 |
| Sarah WEISS MOESSMER | Others | 2,681 | 3.8 |
| Christian DANTZ | Greens | 803 | 1.1 |
| Bastien MACIA | Sovereignists | 767 | 1.1 |
| Patrick DUTTER | Far left | 446 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bas-Rhin — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haut-Rhin — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haut-Rhin — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated