Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bas-Rhin
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 62% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 76%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription | 36.9% | 27.3% | 20.1% | 10.4% |
| Provincial averageBas-Rhin | 36.5%+0.4 | 20.5%+6.8 | 24.1%−4.0 | 12.9%−2.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+0.9 | 17.0%+10.2 | 29.0%−9.0 | 12.2%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Françoise BUFFET · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 9.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delphine DAUBENBERGER | RN and allies | 22,625 | 33.1 |
| Françoise BUFFET Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 22,107 | 32.4 |
| Raphaële KRATTINGER | Left (NFP) | 14,297 | 20.9 |
| Nelly AESCHELMANN | LR and allies | 3,936 | 5.8 |
| Catherine BERTHOL | LR and allies | 2,389 | 3.5 |
| Bénédicte MATZ | Others | 1,982 | 2.9 |
| Jean-Louis BIGOT | RN and allies | 645 | 0.9 |
| Mehdi BENHLAL | Far left | 344 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated