Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bas-Rhin
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription | 43.9% | 24.3% | 17.6% | 8.0% |
| Provincial averageBas-Rhin | 24.1%+19.8 | 36.5%−12.3 | 20.5%−2.9 | 12.9%−4.9 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+14.9 | 36.0%−11.7 | 17.0%+0.6 | 12.2%−4.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Emmanuel FERNANDES · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 19.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel FERNANDES Elected | Left (NFP) | 21,533 | 43.9 |
| Rebecca BREITMAN | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,063 | 22.6 |
| Virginie JORON | RN and allies | 10,407 | 21.2 |
| Alexandre WOLF SAMALOUSSI | LR and allies | 3,287 | 6.7 |
| Cendrine DIEMUNSCH | Others | 819 | 1.7 |
| Jean Marc GOVERNATORI | Greens | 685 | 1.4 |
| Fabienne SCHNITZLER | Greens | 473 | 1.0 |
| Elisa CLOLOT | Left (NFP) | 358 | 0.7 |
| Alain RICHARD | Far left | 262 | 0.5 |
| Clément SOUBISE | Far left | 154 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated