Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bas-Rhin
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription | 44.4% | 24.2% | 14.7% | 10.0% |
| Provincial averageBas-Rhin | 36.5%+7.8 | 20.5%+3.6 | 24.1%−9.3 | 12.9%−2.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+8.4 | 17.0%+7.1 | 29.0%−14.3 | 12.2%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Vincent THIEBAUT · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 20.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marc WOLFF | RN and allies | 25,199 | 40.5 |
| Vincent THIEBAUT Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,206 | 29.2 |
| Olivier TERRIEN | Left (NFP) | 9,680 | 15.5 |
| Philippe PFRIMMER | LR and allies | 5,512 | 8.9 |
| Maurice GLUCK | Others | 2,583 | 4.1 |
| Robin GEROLT | RN and allies | 678 | 1.1 |
| Yann LUCAS | Far left | 406 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Bas-Rhin — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated