Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bas-Rhin
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription | 48.3% | 20.6% | 18.6% | 8.4% |
| Provincial averageBas-Rhin | 36.5%+11.8 | 12.9%+7.8 | 20.5%−1.9 | 24.1%−15.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+12.3 | 12.2%+8.4 | 17.0%+1.6 | 29.0%−20.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Théo BERNHARDT · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 27.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Théo BERNHARDT Elected | RN and allies | 26,313 | 44.2 |
| Stéphanie KOCHERT | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,006 | 23.5 |
| Victor VOGT | LR and allies | 6,818 | 11.4 |
| Myriam ZEKAGH | Left (NFP) | 5,432 | 9.1 |
| Christian KLIPFEL | LR and allies | 4,731 | 7.9 |
| Claire GROSHEITSCH | Greens | 739 | 1.2 |
| Nathan HACKENSCHMIDT | RN and allies | 663 | 1.1 |
| Stella BATISSE | Sovereignists | 576 | 1.0 |
| Catherine GSELL | Far left | 306 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Bas-Rhin — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated