Pas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pas-de-Calais
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscription | 45.9% | 27.1% | 13.9% | 10.4% |
| Provincial averagePas-de-Calais | 53.2%−7.3 | 12.8%+14.4 | 20.8%−6.9 | 9.6%+0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+9.9 | 17.0%+10.1 | 29.0%−15.1 | 12.2%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Philippe FAIT · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 18.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît DOLLE | RN and allies | 25,286 | 42.3 |
| Philippe FAIT Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,309 | 30.7 |
| Blandine DRAIN | Left (NFP) | 8,794 | 14.7 |
| Clémence LAMBERT | LR and allies | 5,501 | 9.2 |
| Jérémy DURAND | Centre (Ensemble) | 935 | 1.6 |
| Fanny JUDEK | RN and allies | 445 | 0.8 |
| Dominique HERICOURT | Far left | 442 | 0.7 |
| Jean-Marc SERGENT | Others | 6 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pas-de-Calais — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Somme — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Somme — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated