Somme — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Somme
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somme — 1ère circonscription | 43.5% | 33.0% | 19.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageSomme | 47.9%−4.4 | 20.9%+12.1 | 15.5%+3.6 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.5 | 29.0%+4.0 | 17.0%+2.1 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
François RUFFIN · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie RIBEIRO BILLET | RN and allies | 21,413 | 40.7 |
| François RUFFIN Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,850 | 33.9 |
| Albane BRANLANT | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,933 | 22.7 |
| Bruno DUMONT | Centre (Ensemble) | 776 | 1.5 |
| Jean-Patrick BAUDRY | Far left | 653 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Somme — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Somme — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Somme — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Oise — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated