Somme — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Somme
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somme — 4ème circonscription | 52.4% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 13.4% |
| Provincial averageSomme | 47.9%+4.5 | 20.9%−4.7 | 12.4%+2.3 | 15.5%−2.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+16.4 | 29.0%−12.8 | 12.2%+2.4 | 17.0%−3.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-Philippe TANGUY · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 36.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe TANGUY Elected | RN and allies | 28,559 | 49.6 |
| Anthony GEST | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,631 | 18.5 |
| Elodie HÉREN | Left (NFP) | 9,789 | 17.0 |
| Vincent JACQUES | LR and allies | 7,759 | 13.5 |
| Guy VITOUX | Far left | 820 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Somme — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Somme — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Oise — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Somme — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Somme — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated