Oise — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Oise
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oise — 1ère circonscription | 49.9% | 25.7% | 16.9% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageOise | 47.9%+1.9 | 18.6%+7.2 | 21.0%−4.1 | 8.5%−4.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+13.9 | 12.2%+13.5 | 29.0%−12.1 | 17.0%−13.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Claire MARAIS-BEUIL · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 24.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claire MARAIS-BEUIL Elected | RN and allies | 24,621 | 46.2 |
| Victor HABERT-DASSAULT | LR and allies | 13,049 | 24.5 |
| Roxane LUNDY | Left (NFP) | 9,402 | 17.6 |
| Matys GUTIERREZ | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,062 | 7.6 |
| Axelle LATRASSE | Greens | 749 | 1.4 |
| Souhail AOUAD | Centre (Ensemble) | 728 | 1.4 |
| Jean-Philippe FRUITIER | Far left | 348 | 0.7 |
| Norbert DEPRESLES | RN and allies | 339 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oise — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Oise — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Somme — 2ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Somme — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Oise — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Forecast updated