Oise — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Oise
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oise — 3ème circonscription | 45.9% | 30.4% | 13.9% | 5.5% |
| Provincial averageOise | 47.9%−2.1 | 21.0%+9.4 | 8.5%+5.4 | 18.6%−13.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+9.9 | 29.0%+1.4 | 17.0%−3.1 | 12.2%−6.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Alexandre SABATOU · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 15.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre SABATOU Elected | RN and allies | 19,487 | 43.1 |
| Amadou KA | Left (NFP) | 14,149 | 31.3 |
| Pascal BOIS | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,556 | 18.9 |
| Marie FERREIRA | LR and allies | 1,931 | 4.3 |
| Nadège LEGRIS | Others | 573 | 1.3 |
| Roland SZPIRKO | Far left | 522 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Val-d'Oise — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Val-d'Oise — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Val-d'Oise — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Val-d'Oise — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Oise — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated