Val-d'Oise — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Val-d'Oise
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val-d'Oise — 4ème circonscription | 33.9% | 29.3% | 23.0% | 7.2% |
| Provincial averageVal-d'Oise | 39.7%−5.8 | 29.6%−0.3 | 15.5%+7.4 | 10.4%−3.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+4.9 | 36.0%−6.7 | 17.0%+5.9 | 12.2%−5.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Naïma MOUTCHOU · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karine LACOUTURE | Left (NFP) | 17,498 | 34.7 |
| Naïma MOUTCHOU Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,084 | 27.9 |
| Sébastien MEURANT | RN and allies | 13,238 | 26.2 |
| Inthone RODSPHON | LR and allies | 3,003 | 5.9 |
| Grégory BERTHAULT | Greens | 2,132 | 4.2 |
| Marie-Françoise L'HOMMEDET | Far left | 485 | 1.0 |
| Robin DURAND | Others | 52 | 0.1 |
| Antonin MARTIN | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Val-d'Oise — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Val-d'Oise — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Hauts-de-Seine — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated