Val-d'Oise — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Val-d'Oise
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val-d'Oise — 5ème circonscription | 55.3% | 21.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% |
| Provincial averageVal-d'Oise | 39.7%+15.5 | 29.6%−7.8 | 10.4%−0.5 | 15.5%−7.5 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+26.2 | 36.0%−14.2 | 12.2%−2.4 | 17.0%−9.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Paul VANNIER · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 33.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul VANNIER Elected | Left (NFP) | 23,308 | 56.0 |
| Quentin HOARAU | RN and allies | 7,784 | 18.7 |
| Fatima LILIYAJE | Centre (Ensemble) | 5,389 | 13.0 |
| Boualem MEZIANE | LR and allies | 3,170 | 7.6 |
| Dominique MARIETTE | Far left | 558 | 1.3 |
| Dominique LESUEUR | Greens | 555 | 1.3 |
| Gilbert PHAM | LR and allies | 412 | 1.0 |
| Thès BALEUR | Others | 251 | 0.6 |
| Jean-Baptiste POIAGHI | Far left | 189 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hauts-de-Seine — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hauts-de-Seine — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Val-d'Oise — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Forecast updated