Val-d'Oise — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Val-d'Oise
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val-d'Oise — 1ère circonscription | 37.5% | 29.9% | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Provincial averageVal-d'Oise | 29.6%+7.9 | 39.7%−9.9 | 15.5%+4.9 | 10.4%−3.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+1.5 | 29.0%+0.9 | 17.0%+3.4 | 12.2%−4.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Anne SICARD · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 7.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anne SICARD Elected | RN and allies | 18,823 | 33.7 |
| Maximillien JULES-ARTHUR | Left (NFP) | 17,230 | 30.8 |
| Émilie CHANDLER | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,244 | 25.5 |
| Michel RICHARD | LR and allies | 3,468 | 6.2 |
| Barbara GÉHAN | Far left | 826 | 1.5 |
| Lionel LESSAINT | Sovereignists | 755 | 1.4 |
| Laure DE GARILS | RN and allies | 574 | 1.0 |
| Sami LAH | Others | 21 | 0.0 |
| Ethel SOUSSI | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Val-d'Oise — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Yvelines — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Yvelines — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Yvelines — 5ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Forecast updated