Pas-de-Calais — 7ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pas-de-Calais
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pas-de-Calais — 7ème circonscription | 49.1% | 33.2% | 14.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averagePas-de-Calais | 53.2%−4.1 | 9.6%+23.5 | 20.8%−6.1 | 2.2%−0.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+13.1 | 12.2%+20.9 | 29.0%−14.3 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marc DE FLEURIAN · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 15.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marc DE FLEURIAN Elected | RN and allies | 26,995 | 47.9 |
| Pierre-Henri DUMONT | LR and allies | 19,036 | 33.8 |
| Jean-Pierre MOUSSALLY | Left (NFP) | 9,184 | 16.3 |
| Olivier CARRAUD | Far left | 701 | 1.2 |
| Jérôme JUDEK | RN and allies | 492 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pas-de-Calais — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 13ème circonscription Others, toss-up
- Nord — 14ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated