Bouches-du-Rhône — 14ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 14ème circonscription | 35.9% | 28.7% | 24.0% | 6.9% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 44.0%−8.1 | 32.3%−3.5 | 14.1%+9.9 | 5.9%+1.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−0.1 | 29.0%−0.3 | 17.0%+7.0 | 12.2%−5.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Gérault VERNY · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 7.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gérault VERNY Elected | RN and allies | 21,734 | 31.7 |
| Jean-David CIOT | Left (NFP) | 20,242 | 29.5 |
| Anne-Laurence PETEL | Centre (Ensemble) | 19,853 | 28.9 |
| Gaëtan MUSELET | LR and allies | 3,869 | 5.6 |
| Dominique SASSOON | Greens | 1,010 | 1.5 |
| Charles MOYAL | RN and allies | 827 | 1.2 |
| Mireille DUFAY | Sovereignists | 635 | 0.9 |
| Anne ROCHE | Far left | 470 | 0.7 |
| Baptiste BOUCKENHOVE | LR and allies | 30 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 11ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated