Bouches-du-Rhône — 11ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 11ème circonscription | 43.0% | 26.7% | 21.2% | 5.3% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 44.0%−1.0 | 32.3%−5.6 | 14.1%+7.2 | 5.9%−0.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.0 | 29.0%−2.4 | 17.0%+4.2 | 12.2%−6.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marc PENA · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 16.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hervé FABRE-AUBRESPY | RN and allies | 24,524 | 38.9 |
| Marc PENA Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,374 | 27.5 |
| Mohamed LAQHILA | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,581 | 26.3 |
| Fayçal ZERGUINE | LR and allies | 2,562 | 4.1 |
| Michel BAYLE | Sovereignists | 837 | 1.3 |
| Jean François MEBTOUCHE | RN and allies | 835 | 1.3 |
| Charlotte MARIA | Far left | 382 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 12ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated